Jon Marcus at The Hechinger Report takes a deep dive into the “enrollment cliff” — the sharp decline in the number of 18-year-olds starting this year — and its far-reaching consequences for colleges and the economy:
“This comes after colleges and universities already collectively experienced a 15 percent decline in enrollment between 2010 and 2021, the most recent year for which the figures are available, according to the National Center for Education Statistics. That means they already have 2.7 million fewer students than they did at the start of the last decade.”
This isn’t just a higher ed problem. Fewer college graduates mean fewer skilled workers to fill critical jobs. By 2031, 43% of jobs will require a bachelor’s degree, but the pipeline is drying up. Add in the growing perception that college isn’t worth it, and we’re looking at a perfect storm.
The piece also highlights how this crisis will ripple across industries. One example: a $40 billion semiconductor plant in Arizona has delayed production because they can’t find enough skilled workers.
“Falling enrollment, meanwhile, has been made worse by a decline in perception of the value of a college or university degree. Fewer than one in four Americans now say having a bachelor’s degree is extremely or very important to get a good job, the Pew Research Center finds.”
As a former educator, this makes me heartsick. It isn’t just about colleges closing — it’s about the future of America’s intellect, critical thinking, workforce, economy, and global competitiveness.